Rising fertilizer prices harm economies!
The rising cost of fertilizers makes it difficult for farmers to earn a living, support their families and feed the world.
In the movie Avengers: Infinity War, the evil Thanos gathers half a dozen mystical stones, snaps his fingers and wipes out half the population of the universe.
On Earth, the Marvel supervillain could have achieved his ruinous ends by ending artificial fertilizers.
Synthetic fertilizers have boosted agricultural productivity so much in the last 7 decades or so that half of the current population owes its existence to this innovation, often ignored but which has been described as the greatest of the twentieth century.
Rising fertilizer prices
Rising fertilizer prices and supply disruptions stemming from wars and other dangers are now threatening the world's agricultural abundance and, with it, food security. Without enough fertilizers, farmers cannot grow enough food.
The shortage of fertilizers is at the center of several food crises that are emerging around the world.
Global fertilizer prices soared 80% last year, and have risen another 20% this year. The longer this increase in costs lasts, the more people will go hungry. Some farmers who were already barely subsisting cannot afford to buy fertilizers at current prices.
For those of us who don't grow what we eat (most of us), the increase in fertilizer prices usually has an impact on the increase in food prices.
The UN food price index is far from its highs, but it is up 23% from a year ago. For some people, especially in developing countries (also in the rich), rising costs make it more difficult for them to afford a sufficient amount of food.
Rising fertilizer prices statements
"It's a crisis," says Harold van Es, professor of soil and water management at Cornell University. "There are always winners and losers, and when it comes to food, there are hundreds of millions of people who are potentially going to lose."
Fertilizer price increases are widespread and affect the 3 most commonly used types of commercial additives: nitrogen, which alone supports more than half of the world's population, phosphorus and potassium.
In the US, these main types of fertilizers account for most of what farmers need to maintain crop yields.
And the rising costs of these fertilizers translates into more pressure on farmers and higher food bills.
This is because the country uses commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans for everything from feeding livestock to making bakery products and producing vegetable oil. And corn, wheat and soybeans together account for about 70% of the fertilizers used in the USA.
There are as many culprits behind the fertilizer mess as there are traditional vegetables at a roadside farm stand: rising energy costs (from oil, coal and natural gas, which is used to make nitrogen fertilizers) is one of them.
In addition, we must add the disruptions of world supply resulting from bad weather and the war in Ukraine. According to the World Bank, the conflict could fuel hunger and malnutrition in low-income countries in North Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
There are other factors behind the crisis. Sanctions imposed on fertilizer producers such as Belarus and measures taken by China and Russia to limit the shipment of fertilizers abroad are cutting off some of the flow that would normally reach world markets.
Persistent supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and years of underinvestment in production capacity also play a role.
Rising fertilizer prices updates
How far will the situation go?
In the US, fertilizer costs for farmers increased by more than 60% last year, with nitrogen fertilizer prices nearly doubling and potash fertilizer prices jumping by more than 70%.
"Agriculture knows very well how to solve what we call the supply crisis," says David Widmar, agricultural economist and managing partner at Agricultural Economic Insights. "What it costs us is to manage the excess."
High food prices are pushing farmers to plant more crops like corn, which accounts for about half of U.S. commercial fertilizer use.
Increased production could help lower corn prices eventually. But before that, each new row increases the demand for fertilizers. The Fertilizer Institute, a trade group, has recently reported that the large increase in the price of corn harvested in 2021 since mid-2020 created a strong demand for fertilizers.
The World Bank forecasts that fertilizer prices will soar by almost 70% this year before falling back by 11% next
Rising fertilizer prices solution
Is there a solution?
To get ahead, some farmers will use less fertilizer. Silas Muchiri uses half as much as before on his small farm in Kenya, where he grows and raises goats to feed his family.
Muchiri began reducing fertilizer use before world prices soared last year, placing his soybean and corn crops close together on his more than 80-hectare plot. This configuration produces a green thicket and allows one type of plant to provide nutrients that benefit another.
Their efforts, along with measures such as applying manure where it is most likely to be absorbed by the roots, have helped Muchiri, 52, increase what he produces for himself, his wife and two children. That increase, plus the money saved on commercial fertilizers, means you can keep more of what you earn by selling at the local market.
"Unlike before, I can now pay for school fees," says Muchiri, contacted by video at his farm in Embu County, Kenya, about 75 kilometers northeast of Nairobi.
Other farmers who are able to do so are also cutting expenses. But for many, there is a limit to what they can save while getting proper harvests.
The high costs could push some farmers to rely less on artificial fertilizers and instead use cover crops and more animal by-products, such as chicken manure.
Farmers could also be more thrifty about the amount of fertilizer they use, analyzing the soil more often to determine which nutrients are needed. Measures such as crop rotation can also help.
Finding alternatives and using less could be good because fertilizers made with fossil fuels aggravate the climate crisis. However, they are crucial, especially in tropical areas such as Brazil, which usually have poor soils.
Some fertilizer producers are also increasing production. The World Bank forecasts that price rises for urea, a nitrogen fertilizer, will begin to slow down next year because new production from Brunei, Nigeria and India is expected to come online.
Where will they be most harmed by these problems?
The result of rising fertilizer prices and supply disruptions is likely to affect Africa more.
Anastasia Mbatia, technical director of agriculture at the non-profit organization Farm Africa, who facilitated 's video call with Muchiri, explains that countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya are on the verge of a fourth season of crop failures due to drought.
This increase in costs means that commercial fertilizers will be out of reach for farmers who are already struggling to feed their families.
"We are going to expect another impact from the lower fertilizer use," he says. Mbatia expects many farmers to fall even further behind without help, adding, "Instead of getting out of poverty, they are sinking deeper."
- Rising fertilizer prices and supply disruptions threaten the global food supply.
- Corn, wheat and soybeans together consume about 70% of the fertilizers used in the United States.
- The consequences are likely to be more severe in Africa.
