Are long-term environmental changes gonna affect us all?
No. If we do not reduce emissions, up to 10% of the planet's current crop and livestock areas could become unsuitable for agriculture by 2050, according to IPCC projections.
Especially in Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean, scientists predict that heat and water scarcity will put agriculture to the test. If global temperatures rise 2 degrees celsius above the norm pre-industrial —which is well within our current trajectory— the IPCC predicts an increase in malnutrition, especially in sub-saharan Africa, south Asia, Central and South America, and small islands.
Many of these places are already struggling with hunger, and the situation could get worse.
Long-term environmental changes
"Unless we, as a global community, make very significant cuts in our greenhouse gas emissions, we can anticipate that we will have many more crises and incidents of acute food insecurity, as well as impacts in terms of food prices," said Rachel Bezner Kerr, the other co-leader of the IPCC food chapter.
Climate change also poses increased risks to food security.
This year, in the United States, an outbreak of bird flu caused an almost 300% increase in the price of eggs. The IPCC warns that more infectious disease outbreaks are likely as rising temperatures allow new pests and pathogens to overlap livestock and crops.
It's not clear. There are many factors that influence food prices, such as the supply of labor, international relations, the efficiency of food production and consumer demand for certain foods.
For now, the main foods are not in imminent danger of disappearing, but some consumer favorites, such as coffee, chocolate and wine, are especially vulnerable to climate change.
Long-term environmental changes statements
"It will really come down to: How much are you willing to pay? Or I guess, given the inequality within our country: How much can you pay for your favorite food?," reflects Carr.
Coffee growing areas in Central and South America, Vietnam and Indonesia are likely to experience an increase in average temperature that makes it difficult to produce the crop.
A study published in January in the journal PLOS One predicted a "drastic" decrease, of around 50%, of areas suitable for coffee cultivation in 2050. Between 2020 and 2021, extreme weather conditions in Brazil caused the cost of coffee to rise by 70%, as reported by The New York Times, citing data from the International Monetary Fund.
Coffee could become "a special drink, or a treat that is taken from time to time," says Bezner Kerr.
Chocolate could suffer a similar decline. Most of the world's cocoa — 70% - is grown in Ivory Coast and Ghana, according to the World Economic Forum, where drier conditions could make cocoa farms unsuitable for plants.
Long-term environmental changes news
Climate upheavals are causing shortages all over the world. Wildfires and droughts are besieging the vineyards of California and the Mediterranean.
The severe drought in Mexico is reducing the production of chili peppers and causing a shortage of Sriracha. Apples suffered from last year's extreme heat and late spring frosts in the United States. In France and Canada, mustard seed producers reported that climate change had halved production in 2021.
The damage caused by climate change and other events, such as the war in Ukraine and the coronavirus pandemic, aggravate each other. The war, for example, is exacerbating a pre-existing fertilizer shortage and cutting off a crucial global supply of wheat.
Even places that do not depend on Ukrainian wheat or fertilizers have suffered from the rise in world food prices.
In Malawi, for example, farmers were already recovering from a late start to the rainy season, which led to severe flooding. The country turned to imports to replace lost harvests, but now rising global prices could make imported food too expensive for many Malawians, leading to food shortages.
"Climate by itself, right now, doesn't usually lead to terrible results in food access," Carr points out, adding, "But it's intersecting with a lot of other stressors that are out there."
The coronavirus pandemic dealt a severe blow to supply chains and continues to lead to labor shortages. This weakened the food supply chain from farm to plate and raised costs.
Long-term environmental changes interaction
"The interaction between a non-climatic factor, such as a conflict, and a climatic factor, such as drought, in a particular region, has an increasing impact, leading to really serious food crises," says Bezner Kerr.
We cannot prevent the planet from warming in the coming years, as the greenhouse gases we have already added to the atmosphere will continue to trap heat. But we can reduce the greenhouse gases we emit and adapt our food systems to the changes already taking place.
Those adaptations are different depending on the region and the climate problems it faces. Some farms have already had success with new water management tactics, crop diversification and the integration of these with livestock and forests to improve soil quality. Research institutions are also developing more drought-resistant varieties of staple crops, such as corn.
Researchers need to study those solutions more to know if they will work at scale.
To prevent the crisis from accelerating further, we must stop adding carbon to the atmosphere and make the transition from fossil fuels to more renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind.
We have to make those changes now, or "the future looks bleak," warns Bezner Kerr. "I think it's an opportunity, a hopeful opportunity, and it's a window that's closing."
- The climate crisis is making our food systems vulnerable, and scientists expect it to get worse.
- Extreme weather and long-term environmental changes harm crops, livestock and fisheries.
