The Insee institute study is here: the tariff "shield" has halved the influence of energy prices on inflation, according to Insee.
Without these measures, "inflation between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022 would have been 3.1 points higher," according to the institute.
The "tariff shield" has not only allies. But Insee is one of them. According to a study by the statistical institute published on Thursday, the measures taken by the government to contain household and business bills in France have made it possible to halve the effect of soaring energy prices on inflation.
Between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022, the period covered by the study, "the increase in energy prices (gas, electricity and petroleum products) contributed to 3.1 points of inflation out of a total of 5.3%", according to Insee, which claims that the tariff shield measures "reduced these effects by half". Without these measures, "inflation between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022 would have been 3.1 points higher," estimates the National Statistics Institute.
Insee institute study
"Two-thirds of this effect reflects the increase in the cost of energy consumed by households themselves to move and heat themselves. The remaining third comes from the repercussions, in the prices of other products, of the increases in the cost of energy for companies," says the study.
Government measures are "particularly mitigating inflation for the most modest and elderly households", according to Insee, which points out that households with the lowest incomes are on the front line in the face of the surge in energy, given a share of transport and housing expenses "a little higher in their consumption basket". Energy spending accounts for 12.7% of consumer spending by the 10% of households with the lowest incomes, compared with 9.5% for the 10% of households with the highest incomes, the study said.
Insee institute study measures
Among the measures taken by the government, the freezing of regulated gas tariffs at their October 2021 level, "prevented a 47% increase in regulated tariffs between October 2021 and June 2022," emphasizes Insee, which also mentions the capping of the increase in regulated electricity sales tariffs, which were increased by 4% including VAT between August 2021 and February 2022, and have since been stabilized.
Overall, "between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022, by adding up the increase in electricity, gas and petroleum products, energy prices thus increase by 28% for households", an increase that "would have been twice as high without protective measures (+54%)", according to Insee. Finally, for companies, which depend more than households on electricity, "energy is rising by 20%, compared to 50% without electricity", over this period.
# Insee institute study #
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Natural gas: Can exports from the African continent replace those from Russia?
The day after Emmanuel Macron's visit to Algeria (from August 25 to 27, 2022), the government spokesman announced "a possible increase in Algerian gas deliveries to France". But will this measure be enough to compensate for the shortcomings in the supply of Russian gas following the war in Ukraine? And more globally, what do the natural gas reserves of the African continent really "weigh"?
According to BP's annual report, Algeria is the largest natural gas producer in Africa, with production of about 101 billion cubic meters in 2021, followed by Egypt, Nigeria and Libya. However, all African producers do not produce even half of the production carried out by Russia. Which is also far ahead in terms of exported volumes, as shown in our graph.
This comparison therefore suggests that Africa is only partially able to fill the European supply gaps in the event of a total shutdown of the Russian tap.
Nevertheless, African gas producers should take advantage of the current crisis. Thus, Algeria has decided to increase its deliveries by about 40% to Italy by 2023. In addition, the country plans to significantly increase its production in the coming years.
Germany, which until now has been heavily dependent on gas imports from Russia, could also benefit from these new sources of supply in Africa.
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