Is a new global food crisis underway?
We are in a global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and unleash social revolts.
In India, the cost of lemons has skyrocketed. In Nigeria, jollof rice has become so expensive that people skip meals. In Mexico, avocado prices are sky-high, making them a luxury that few can afford. Florida's orange groves are producing the fewest fruit in years. And in Japan, the shortage of salmon is affecting sushi restaurants.
If the picture is enlarged, it becomes clear that a food crisis is taking place all over the world, and prices have risen everywhere. When that happens, everyone resents it. People can stop going to the movies if ticket prices go up, or do without the car when gas is this expensive, but everyone needs to eat.
Global food crisis
The crisis, which has been brewing for some time, but which has reached its peak with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is already having profound effects.
In Peru, protests against the rising cost of food and fuel turned deadly in April. On the other side of the world, Sri Lanka's government collapsed and its president was ousted in July, when people took to the streets en masse to demonstrate against shortages of food, fuel and medicine.
Unless urgent action is taken, experts warn that the crisis could have serious consequences globally.
In some countries, changes in food availability could alter ancient recipes and customs. Civil unrest could spread, fueling instability and even war in some of the world's poorest regions. The collapse of food systems could lead to huge waves of migration.
World food prices have soared following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February. In the United States, prices rose 10% year-on-year through May, the largest increase since 1981, and rose to a record 8.9% in the euro zone. In Spain the price increase has soared to 10.8% in June, a level not seen since 1984.
Global food crisis situation
Globally, the situation is even worse: the UN world food price index soared by 23% year-on-year in June. Simply put, more and more people are finding it difficult to buy food.
"A food crisis is a price crisis," Chris Barrett, an economist and food policy expert at Cornell University, told . Barrett is convinced that its implications extend and touch the life of every person, even if they do not immediately realize it.
"If you care about domestic politics, if you care about environmental issues, if you care about immigration issues, if you care about diplomacy in the military, you should pay attention to the food crisis, because it is lurking in the background, pressing all those things," he warns.
The calls for attention from world organizations are becoming louder and more desperate. According to the UN World Food Program (WFP), 50 million people around the world are on the verge of famine and are at risk of suffering it, and the director of the WFP calls it an "imminent food catastrophe".
Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine brought the global food system to breaking point. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 30% of the world's commercialized wheat, 20% of the corn and 70% of the sunflower supply, according to the UN World Food Program.
Global food crisis news
The war has not only ravaged the farms. Putin's troops have blockaded Ukraine's Black Sea coast, preventing vital agricultural products from leaving the country. Meanwhile, the conflict and the consequent Western sanctions on Russia have skyrocketed energy costs, with the price of oil rising by more than 40% this year, which in turn drives up the cost of fertilizers.
"This problem could easily drag on into next year, because if you are a Ukrainian producer and your domestic price is, say, half of what it is globally, your incentive or your ability to plant the next crop has been significantly reduced due to tight margins, as you continue to pay high prices for inputs," Wayne Gordon, senior commodity strategist at UBS, told .
Although the war in Ukraine triggered the crisis, there are other factors that have been simmering for some time. Climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and the growing number of conflicts around the world have piled pressure on the global food system in recent years.
The warning signs have been present since long before the Russian invasion, and can be largely attributed to the climate crisis. In 2011, for example, the Black Sea region suffered a severe drought that led to an increase in the price of food, especially wheat. Many analysts have said it contributed to the unrest that triggered the Arab Spring. Samuel Tilleray, sovereign credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings, assures that "there are clear parallels" with that 2011 drought today.
Greenhouse gas emissions have triggered unpredictable weather patterns, and a UN report last year concluded that, by the end of the century, up to 30% of current farmland could no longer be suitable for cultivation.
Global food crisis facts
It's something the world is already seeing now. Severe drought has limited wheat production in major producing states, such as Kansas, and cooking oil prices have skyrocketed around the world, thanks to the drought in South America that limited soybean production.
The pandemic hasn't helped much either. Cornell's Barrett notes that governments around the world were "trying to revive economies struggling under the weight of the pandemic," but supply chain disruptions were skyrocketing, and oil and shipping prices were rising. As a result, he says, supply didn't match demand, and prices kept rising.
"Things were already really tense, and now we are facing even greater tension," adds Annabel Symington, a spokeswoman for the World Food Program on the global food crisis. "They really are a set of crises combined."
The crisis affects you?
Food is a key element of the culture of any community. When that element is scarce — or eliminated altogether — civil unrest can ensue.
In 2008, the international price of wheat doubled, along with that of milk and meat, prompting major producers to ban exports to ensure supply to domestic populations.
In Morocco, 10 people died in 2008 in protest at food shortages, prompting a wave of strikes and protests. In Bangladesh, that same year, 10,000 workers rioted, destroying cars and factories out of anger at rising food prices. Experts say there's no reason this time should be any different.
"Periods of high food prices are associated with a higher incidence of violence, political unrest and social unrest," Barrett said. "They are also causally associated with higher rates of forced migration. When people cannot feed their families in the place where they live, they leave in search of food. And some of those migrations are quite problematic."
But there are remedies — short—term and long-term - that governments can employ to keep people fed. Symington, of the World Food Programme, says governments should do all they can to help avert the growing risk of famine in the world's most vulnerable regions. Barrett adds that there should always be automatic safety net arrangements in place to ensure there are financial resources when someone is food insecure.
In the long term, Symington believes that international organizations and political leaders should encourage a shift towards more local food production, making people less dependent on global supply chains. Barrett suggests that the World Trade Organization should stabilize export prices to avoid "crazy price gyrations."
But regardless of what measures governments take, life is going to be more expensive for all of us, and much more difficult for billions. "Even if you are well-fed and all your loved ones and neighbors are well-fed, this affects you," Barrett concludes.
Global food crisis summary
- A global food crisis is taking place, spurred by the invasion of Ukraine and weather events.
- Food shortages have led to social unrest in the past, with deadly consequences.
- Experts warn that even if you are well-fed, the rising cost of food is going to affect you.
