France Bank growth forecast - Growth is expected to slow to 0.5% in 2023, the Bank of France forecasts.
The Banque de France is more pessimistic than the government, which forecasts 2.7% growth for this year and 1% for next year.
Blow of slack on French growth. It should decelerate sharply, from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023, before rebounding to 1.8% in 2024, according to macroeconomic projections published Thursday by the Bank of France. The central bank emphasizes that the uncertainty is very high and publishes a range of GDP evolution between +0.8% and - 0.5% for 2023.
France Bank growth forecast
It does not exclude a "technical recession" of "two or three quarters of GDP decline around the winter of 2022-23", indicated the director general of the institution, Olivier Garnier, during a press conference. Whatever the scenario chosen for next year, the Banque de France is more pessimistic than the government, which forecasts 2.7% growth for this year and 1% for next year, relying on the resilience of the French economy.
For the central bank, we have "a resilience that is better than expected during the greater part of 2022; a clear slowdown from next winter", the magnitude of which is "surrounded by very wide uncertainties" and finally "a resumption of economic expansion in 2024"
This uncertainty also affects the level of inflation which, after reaching 5.8% this year, will evolve next year in a range between 4.2% and 6.9%, then fall back to 2.7% in 2024. "Even if the war [in Ukraine] were unfortunately to continue, energy prices will inevitably end up stabilizing or even falling," the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, believes in the daily La Croix.
France Bank growth forecast measures
To measure inflation, the Banque de France uses the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which allows comparison between European countries and gives a more important place to energy prices than the consumer price index (CPI) used by Insee and the French government.
In August year-on-year, the CPI increased by 5.9% and the HICP by 6.6%, Insee reported Thursday. The high level of inflation is weighing on the purchasing power of households, which is expected to decline by 0.3% this year, and even by 0.5% if measured per capita. It would remain stable next year (0.2% and 0.0% per capita) and would rise again in 2024 (+1.6% and 1.4% per capita), according to the projections of the Bank of France.
- Not to mention all the small, medium or large companies that risk putting the key under the door with the exorbitant and scandalous price of gas and electricity and the cascading consequences that will result.we'll talk about it again next year but they can still revise their figures downwards…
France Bank growth forecast data and comments
- Household consumption, until then the main support for modest growth, will experience an unprecedented slowdown, largely underestimated by economists.
- I didn't buy a single French fruit this year.
In addition to being expensive, they are harvested at maturity and are full of sugar, which means that Moroccan fruits supposed to be full of sugar have a better score on the Nutri-Score of the government since I rely on the classification of fruit juices which are classified B.
Do not consume French regarding fruits, you risk diabetes they are too good... sorry Macron for your indications on consumption...
