Is there a farmers grass shortage?

The price of milk will continue to rise because of the historic drought.

Farmers no longer have enough grass to feed their cows.

The morning glass of milk is already at a very high level. But the price of milk will rise again because of the historic drought underway in France, because farmers no longer have enough grass to feed their cows, with cascading consequences on all dairy products. "The price increases, which have existed for several months, will continue on dairy products," says Benoît Rouyer, economic director of the National Interprofessional Center for the Dairy Economy (Cniel).

Farmers grass shortage

In one year, a succession of shocks fed inflation on food products, between the rapid post-Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine. For dairy products, the price of yoghurts increased by 4.5% between June 2021 and June 2022, semi-skimmed milk in bricks or bottles by 4.5%, butter by 9.8% and cheese by 5.2%. "Bad news for the consumer, we don't see inflation falling on dairy products in the coming weeks," continues the economist.

Global warming has also had a very concrete impact. First there was an abnormally hot and dry May, then three heatwave episodes in June, July and early August. The drought is "the most marked in the last 70 years", notes Christian Huyghe, scientific director Agriculture of Inrae.

As a result, grass production fell by 21% on July 20 compared to normal, at a time when dairy cows feed largely on pasture, according to data from Agreste, the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture. When the grass is no longer green on the prairies, farmers have three options: draw on their forage stocks planned for the winter, buy animal feed, or sell part of the herd to reduce their expenses.

Since feed prices for dairy cows increased by 25.9% in May compared to May 2021 according to Agreste, many breeders agree that the most profitable thing remains to part with part of their animals. There will still be milk on the shelves, but a "lack of milk" may be felt, believes Benoît Rouyer. "Overall, a lack of milk will lead to a decrease in the possibilities of producing butter, cream, milk bricks, cheeses ... And when you have a lack of product, regardless of the sector, there is an impact on the price," he explains.

Farmers grass shortage system

With a subtlety: in the current agri-food system, commercial negotiations on food prices take place once a year and the prices at which distributors (hyper and supermarkets ...) buy milk from producers do not automatically rise at the rate of increases in production costs suffered by farmers.

Negotiations were reopened in the spring, and the National Federation of Milk Producers (FNPL) is calling for the liter of milk sold on supermarket shelves to approach the euro by the start of the new school year "against 78 cents in hard-discount", according to observations that their network conducted this summer. In 2021, cow's milk prices paid to producers amounted to about 390 euros per 1,000 liters on average, up 4.3% compared to 2020.

If the price has risen to 427 euros in May 2022, the unions claim that this new price still does not cover their production costs and ask for new increases. In comparison, "in Germany, a ton of milk costs 480 euros, in Belgium it is about 500 euros and in the Netherlands it goes up to 540 euros per thousand liters," explains Thierry Roquefeuil, president of the FNPL. If France does not reach the levels of its European neighbors on the price of milk, the federation threatens to switch to "a unionism of destruction" at the start of the new school year, he warns.

Farmers grass shortage comments

- As Toulouse Lautrec said "I would drink milk when the cows graze grapes" man is the only mammal to drink milk of another species. After the butter there is the lard. Goat cheese is excellent.

- We are studying a new breed of cows that no longer drinks and produces powdered milk directly! Goodbye Abundances, Tarines, Montbéliardes, Blondes from Aquitaine, Normandes, Salers....We only keep the Cows of Hérens for the fight!

- there has been frost, drought, Ukraine, there is a small percentage of farmers who have made stormwater reservoirs and they are happy, but the majority want to cultivate every square centimeter of production and that's all + subsidies, and now the boss of the Agricultural Federation who wants to water anything, there needs to be a law obliging a percentage of the land in water reservoirs otherwise no more help, and not to siphon into wells, and for prices they have already increased two years and six months by buying from producers, so don't take us for pigeons

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