Escriva calculates August Spain return employment level prior pandemic - The advance in vaccination, the greater needs of staff in the hospitality industry on the occasion of the summer campaign and the hiring of teachers facing September are boosting employment in the month of August in Spain and this has led the Government to make quite positive forecasts on affiliation data at the end of the summer.
The Ministry of Social Security estimates that August will close with an average membership of 19.48 million people, which means a growth of about 80,000, according to the experimental advance of biweekly affiliation published by the department of José Luis Escrivá.
This increase would be the fourth consecutive monthly, in terms desestacionalizados, and would recover at the end of the month approximately the same level of employment that existed in February 2020, before the start of the pandemic, according to the Government, and have been ‘advertised’ own minister, José Luis Escrivá, in a message on his Twitter profile.
As has happened in the previous months, employment growth is being generalized by sector, although so far in August the main activities of the General Regime (excluding the special agrarian systems and domestic employees) and the Self-Employed Regime gained affiliates compared to the close of the previous month.
Escriva calculates August Spain return employment level prior pandemic
In detail, education, hospitality and construction lead job creation during the first half of August. It should be noted that in August there is usually an uptick in summer contracts in the hospitality sector due to the greater needs for tourism, this year still marked by COVID-19.
According to the Ministry, the behavior of the affiliation in the third quarter with respect to the last week of June is considerably better than in years of job creation. In mid-August, the cumulative membership growth is 22,000 people compared to a fall of 152,000 members in the average of the years 2017-2019.
In addition, the number of persons in ERTE stands at a new low of 286,000 on 13 August, of whom 86,850 were on part-time suspension, so that, for the first time, less than 200,000 are on full suspension.
Escriva calculates August Spain return employment level prior pandemic
Compared to the last day of July, there has been a decrease of almost 45,000 people in ERTE if the date of notification is taken into account, while, by date of discharge, the decrease is 12,000 people. Since the peak of the third wave of the pandemic in February, the number of workers in ERTE has fallen by more than 600,000 people.
Of the 286,000 people in ERTE at 13 August, 186,000-two out of three - were protected by modalities that involve Social Security exemptions (ultra-protected sectors and value chain, limitation and impediment). The number of workers in ERTE in ultra-protected sectors and its value chain is 123,000, while in limitation there are 57,000 people, and 6,000 in impediment. In all cases, the figures are lower than at the end of July.
The autonomous communities that have registered a higher rate of reduction in persons ERTE during the first two weeks of August are the Balearic islands, with a reduction of 22.7%, which is 5.394 workers less; the Canary islands with a -18,1% and 8.920 workers; and the Valencian Community with a reduction of 16.3% and 3.923 people. In absolute terms, the province of Barcelona is the one with the greatest reduction.
Escriva calculates August Spain return employment level prior pandemic
With the decline in the first half of August, the number of workers in ERTE has fallen from 2% of the total number of members of the General Scheme (without special schemes). In nine provinces Almería, Huesca, Huelva, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Lleida, Castellón, Badajoz and Álava, as well as in two autonomous communities, Murcia and Navarra, less than 1% of their members of the general regime are in ERTE.
In relation to the sectors of activity that have registered the greatest reduction in workers in ERTE during the first half of August, we highlight the manufacture of motor vehicles (-42%); air transport (-30%), accommodation services (-22%); and food and drinks (-11%). In absolute terms, these last two sectors are the ones that have registered the greatest outflows of people in ERTE.