Blights clouds economic recovery vaccination driven, but uncertainty holds it back as the advance of the vaccination campaign has already begun to show its fruits in the Spanish economy. The recovery of tourism and the increase in private spending after the end of the restrictions have caused an increase in the forecast of economic growth in all the autonomous communities for this 2021.

BBVA Research has made public the data from its Regional Observatory on the third quarter of the year, which shows a more favorable situation for all regions after the impact of the pandemic. The update is in line with its latest projections at national level that foresee an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Spain of 6.5%.

The autonomy that has come out the best stop of the update is the Balearic Islands, which will manage to raise its economy by 8.3% in the third quarter thanks to the impact of its tourist activity. The archipelago has taken off three tenths with respect to the last observatory and is placed 1.8 points above the national average, ahead of all territories.

Blights clouds economic recovery vaccination driven

Analysts have attributed the growth boost precisely to the recovery of national tourism, which will benefit all Mediterranean regions and islands. Andalusia (6.7%), Catalonia (6.6%), Valencia (6.7%), Murcia (6.6%) and the Canary Islands (6.9%) will also be placed above the average thanks to this phenomenon.

Not only tourism will mark the economic recovery of the autonomous communities. Aragon (6.6%), Galicia (6.8%) and Cantabria (6.8%) will also have a better result than the state average, thanks to the boost caused by exports of goods and services and the increase in investment.

These 2 factors will also boost the economies of other regions such as Navarra (5.9%), La Rioja (5.6%) or the Basque Country (6.2%) but in a more moderate way, which will leave them below the average GDP growth of Spain as a whole.

Blights clouds economic recovery vaccination driven

Nor will other key points such as Madrid (6.3%), Castilla-La Mancha (5.9%), or Extremadura (5.7%) reach this threshold of 6.5%. However, they will be 3 of the communities that grow the most with respect to their previous position. All will rise by more than one point in the third quarter and continue to cut positions in 2022.

Behind this clear improvement, BBVA Resarch has found a range of factors, ranging from the control of Covid-19 to the arrival of European recovery funds, through the measures of impulse of the European Central Bank (ECB). The level of household savings despite the pandemic will also play a decisive role in reviving the economy.

The growth scenario will be even higher next year. BBVA Research analysts predict that for the 2022 academic year the evolution of GDP will be 7% in the country as a whole, the same figure as in its last update.

Blights clouds economic recovery vaccination driven

However, some communities will take flight more than others. The Canary Islands, for example, has improved its forecast by 7 tenths due to the good expectations generated by the winter holiday campaign. Andalusia will also grow half a point due to the push of national tourism.

The counterpart is offered by territories such as Madrid that has updated its forecasts for 2022 downwards due to the limited progress of business tourism, as well as the areas of Aragon, Galicia or Castilla y León that will feel the effect of the forward investment to 2021.

In this way, the recovery will continue to be led by the Balearic Islands (11.6%), which will begin to be followed more closely by the Canary Islands (10.7%). In a second step, the Basque Country (7.5%), Navarre (7.3%), Catalonia (7.2%) and Madrid (7.1%) already appear.

This balance would allow Spain to close 2022 with levels equivalent to those before the pandemic, although analysts have identified a series of risks that may condition the final result. The evolution of the pandemic, vaccination in tourist-sending countries or the imposition of new restrictions continue to generate uncertainty.

Blights clouds economic recovery vaccination driven

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Here are the requirements you must meet to retire at age 61

Reaching retirement age is the goal of many workers who, after decades of contributions, want to end their career and begin a more than deserved rest.

The minimum retirement age in 2021 is 65 years for those who have contributed 37 years and 3 months or more, and 66 years for workers who have not reached this contribution time.

However, retiring before the age of 65 is possible in some specific cases. The rule provides for the option of early retirement at the age of 61, provided that certain requirements relating to age and the minimum period of contribution are met.

This type of pre-retirement is a mechanism designed for those workers who have been laid off when they are close to 61 years of age, due to the difficulty of returning to the labour market in such cases.

The name with which this mechanism is known is that of early retirement derived from the non-voluntary cessation of work, and the Social Security includes the requirements to be able to benefit from it:

• Have reached an age that is less than 4 years, maximum, to the required age that in each case results from application.
• Be registered with the employment offices as jobseekers for a period of at least 6 months immediately prior to the date of the application for retirement.
• Prove a minimum contribution period of 33 years, of which at least 2 must occur in the last 15 years.
• For professionals included in the Special System for agricultural workers, in order to accredit the minimum period of effective contribution (33 years), it will be necessary that, of the last 10 years contributed, at least 6 years correspond to periods of activity in this system.
• The dismissal at work was caused by a situation of corporate restructuring that impedes the continuity of the work activity. Dismissals that have occurred for reasons attributable to the will of the worker do not count.

When these requirements are met, the worker may retire at the age of 61 or 62, depending on his or her situation and when he or she was dismissed.

However, the main disadvantage of these cases is that the amount of the pension will be reduced. Thus the reducing coefficients are applied in each case:

• Coefficient of 1.875% per quarter when a contribution less than 38 years and 6 months is credited.
• Coefficient of 1.750% per quarter when a contribution equal to or greater than 38 years and 6 months and less than 41 years and 6 months is credited.
• Coefficient of 1.625% per quarter when a contribution equal to or greater than 41 years and 6 months and less than 44 years and 6 months is credited.
• Coefficient of 1,500% per quarter when a contribution equal to or greater than 44 years and 6 months is credited.