Pandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidence ahead of the worsening economic and employment prospects, according to the CIS - The worst assessment of the current situation and the expectations that the Spanish on the Spanish economy, coinciding with the fifth wave of the pandemic of Covid-19, has weighed on consumer confidence in July, causing the first fall of this indicator so far this year.

The month of July closed with a consumer confidence index (CCI) of 91.9 points, which represents a fall of 5.5 points compared to the previous month, although it remains above the results obtained since August 2019.

This decline is explained both by the fall in the component referring to the valuation of the current situation, which falls 2.3 points compared to June, to 73.6 points, and the worst valuation of expectations, which drops 8.8 points, to 110.3 points.

Pandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidence

The consumer confidence index is calculated taking into account both the perception of the current situation and the expectations of consumers, so it can be said that this CIS study evidences the incidence of the fifth wave of contagion of the pandemic in the expectations of Spaniards.

In fact, the decline of 5.5 points in consumer confidence is the first drop so far this year, since since the start of 2021, and despite the bad economic start and the third and fourth waves, this indicator has been gradually improving so far.

Despite the decline this month, since January of this year consumer confidence has increased a total of 36.2 points, the assessment of the current situation has increased 40.7 points and the assessment of expectations has risen 31.7 points.

Pandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidence

In addition, in relation to the month of July of the previous year, the evolution is positive, since the consumer confidence index rose 38.9 points, compared to 53.1 points then, thanks to the increase of 43.5 points in the assessment of the current situation and the 34.2 points more on expectations.

The uscis explains that the loss of 2.3 points in the index of assessment of the current situation in July, up 73,6 points, is due to the evolution of the valuations of its three components: the assessment of the current economic situation, low to 6.3 points compared to the previous month and the market's valuation of work falls 5.7 points from the month of June.

Pandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidence

On the contrary, in the case of the assessment of the situation of households there is an increase of 5 points in the last month. In the case of the valuations of the economic situation and the labour market, despite this decrease, they are at the level of the valuations of the end of 2019.

With regard to expectations, the decline of 8.8 points to 110.3 points is due to the fall in the assessment of the evolution of the economy in the immediate future (108.7 points; 14.8 less), on the future of the labour market (10.6 points; 12.1 lPandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidenceess) and the future evolution of households (remains at 112.6 points).

Pandemic fifth wave takes Spain consumer confidence

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Overnight stays in apartments, cottages and campsites soar in June: 3 facts that invite optimism to the tourism sector

June has been a month that invites optimism in the tourism sector in Spain. Since the state of alarm ended in May, and despite an increasing incidence caused by the expansion of the delta variant, tourism has given signs of life. The latest survey by the National Statistics Institute is another of these vital signs of recovery.

The INE has published the occupancy survey in non-hotel tourist accommodation such as apartments, campsites, hostels or rural lodgings, revealing that overnight stays in the month of June have exceeded 7.1 million.

Compared to just over 2 million overnight stays in June 2020, the more than 7 million stays achieved in June this year represent an increase of 247%.

Although it cannot be taken as an absolute reference —there was no interterritorial mobility until 21 June— they do confirm a growing trend.

Throughout the first 6 of 2021 there have been 18.4 million overnight stays throughout Spain, placing the total stays in hotel accommodation 11.3% above the first half of the previous year.

The figure is again misleading, given that the upward graph that was drawn for the summer in 2020 was interrupted by the confinement of the beginning of the pandemic, which logically prevented there from being even an overnight stay in April, and only about 301,000 in May.

Looking at the gradual growth of the summer curve in both 2019 and 2020, however, the arrival of July and August invites us to think about a restoration of the level of overnight stays that can cement the post-pandemic recovery.

The 7.1 million overnight stays in non-hotel establishments this year represent a decrease of 45.8% compared to June 2019.

In 2021, the percentage of month-to-month growth since February has been 58% in March, 33% and 34% in April and May, and up to 93% in June.

The month-to-month variation from June to July 2019 meant an increase in overnight stays of 54%, while in August it was around 27%.

If the months of July and August 2021 are governed by these parameters, non-hotel overnight stays can stand at more than 11 million for the month of July and more than 14 million for August.

These figures would bring the total accumulated overnight stays in 2021 to about 45 million at the end of August, keeping the graph above those of 2020.

Given the difficulties that still exist for international travel, despite the implementation of the COVID-19 passport among the member countries of the European Union, it is not unreasonable to think that domestic tourism will continue to be preeminent.

This fear of leaving national borders has spurred regional airlines such as Binter and Air Nostrum against foreign operators, and has led experts to predict a summer in a national key.

This month of June 2021, overnight stays of travellers resident in Spain represent 76.1% of the total 7.1 million. That is, about 5.4 million. Overnight stays of non-residents, on the other hand, have reached 1.7 million and represent 23.9% of the total.

Given these data, and given the incipient search for unique experiences as a local tourism option, extra-hotel accommodations are almost at full capacity.

The INE survey shows that during the month of June 134,663 accommodations were open in Spain, representing 70.9% of the total directory of establishments in that month.

Within this extra-hotel offer, tourist apartments represent one of the greatest sustenance for total overnight stays. Up to 2.7 million of which 67.6% correspond to Spanish residents.

The Valencian Community, with Benidorm at the head, takes the first place in the ranking of communities, followed by the Canary Islands, Andalusia and Catalonia.

The classification changes, however, when the focus is on campsites, rural tourism accommodation or hostels.

Of the 3.4 million overnight stays in campsites, Catalonia is left with 1.6 million, while the Balearic Islands leads the accommodation of rural tourism and Galicia leads that of hostels.

Travelers, therefore, seem to look to the entire peninsular territory to spend their holidays this year, and they do so in numbers that invite optimism.