OECD improves Spain eurozone economy growth prospects - it has the most in 2021 and 2022, but recovery from the crisis must wait until mid-2023.

The increase in vaccination against the coronavirus and the increase in demand and business activity in advanced economies is improving their prospects for recovery from the coronavirus crisis, which continues to be threatened in emerging countries by lack of access to vaccines or state aid, according to the latest OECD economic outlook report, published on Monday.

"The prospects for the world economy have improved, but the recovery is likely to remain uneven and, fundamentally, depend on the effectiveness of public health measures and stimulus measures," says the study, which raises the OECD forecasts for the next 2 years with an expectation of growth of world GDP of 5.8% in 2021, 1.6 percentage points more than in December, and 4.4% in 2022, 7 tenths more.

In addition, the report also improves the forecasts for Spain, bringing its growth above the world average in 2021 and 2022, with an estimated rise of GDP of 5.9% this year, 2 tenths higher than in march, and by 6.3% in 2022, 1.5 percentage points more, so that, according to the OECD, will be the latest country to grow in the eurozone in 2021 and the world's second largest economy with more growth in 2022.

So, despite having suffered in 2020 the biggest collapse in GDP of developed countries, more than 2 percentage points to the decline of Italy, in 1 point the Uk and 9 tenths of Argentina, the growth, the OECD expected to Spain in 2021 alone would be exceeded by 6.1% that estimated for Canada, 6.9% from the USA, the 7.2 per cent of the United Kingdom, 8.5% of China or 9.9% of India, that is the only country that exceed the advancement of the Spanish GDP in 2022 with a forecast of an 8.2 per cent.

OECD improves Spain eurozone economy growth prospects

Meanwhile, other countries have seen their expectations fall, such as Saudi Arabia, South Korea or Argentina. "The effectiveness of vaccination programmes in many countries has meant that the economic prospects are more promising than at any time since the beginning of this devastating pandemic, but for millions of people around the world receiving a vaccine is still a distant prospect," said OECD Secretary-general Angel Gurría.

The OECD secretary-general has prioritized speed up production and equitable distribution of vaccines, as its chief economist, Laurence Boone, has called for international cooperation to support with vaccines and funding to the least developed countries and to focus the stimulus measures in the companies more viable to reduce corporate debt and encourage job creation and investment in digitization.

OECD improves Spain eurozone economy growth prospects

In fact, Boone has insisted on the need to guarantee debt sustainability and investment in health, digitalization and the fight against climate change, in a similar way to the OECD recommendations for Spain that Ángel Gurría presented last week with the economic vice president Nadia Calviño, in which he urged changes in pensions, minimum wage increases or the promotion of indefinite employment and digitalization.

Finally, the insights report to the OECD also provides an estimated date for the recovery of the figures prepandemia, pointing out that China and Turkey have already recovered, South Korea, USA and Russia will at the end of the second quarter, Japan, Germany, India, and Indonesia towards the end of this year, while Spain should expect to recover in the second quarter of 2023, almost 1 year later Canada, Italy, Uk, Brazil or France.

OECD improves Spain eurozone economy growth prospects

More news:

Sales in restaurants and entertainment venues are already above pre-pandemic levels

After placing Spain as the fourth developed country that has saved the most during the pandemic, Spaniards are contributing to one of the sectors hardest hit by the COVID-19 crisis to return to its pre-pandemic billing levels.

These last 2 weeks, sales of restaurants, bars and entertainment venues have exceeded the turnover levels of 2019.

Restoration sales have recovered 28 percentage points difference after falling in April 14% and recover these last 2 weeks to be 14% above the same prepandemic period, according to CaixaBank data consulted by El Confidencial.

The indicator takes as a reference the data of purchases with cards from transactions with cards issued in Spain and CaixaBank POS. It calculates the consumption that would have existed in 2020 without pandemic, according to the weekly purchases recorded in 2019 plus the growth experienced until February 2020.

The data show that the relaxation of restrictions after the end of the state of alarm has given a respite to much of this sector, one of the economic engines of the country. In fact, according to the media, this is the best data recorded since last summer.

When the summer holidays have not yet arrived, national tourism also begins to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Spending on accommodation, travel agencies and souvenir shops is only 7.7% below pre —crisis levels—compared to 50% in April.

However, the expenditure of international tourists has a great weight in the total balance and the decrease in income in this section still exceeds 45%, according to El Confidencial.

These rates could gradually recover with the strategy of Spain to open its doors without any restrictions to travelers from non-EU countries with a good epidemiological situation—this is the case of the United Kingdom, where however the British are cancelling 82% of hotel reservations due to the restrictions imposed by the Government of Boris Johnson.