11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery, from the arrival of European funds to the evolution of unemployment or tourism.

In less than a month, will conclude the first half of 2021 and, with it, also will be behind a good part of the challenges that the Spanish economy and global they have had to deal after 2020 marked by the impact of the pandemic of coronavirus, as the successive extensions of the ERTE and other measures of social shield against the pandemic, the regional elections in Catalonia and Madrid, or the reset of relations with the US following the departure of Donald Trump from the White House.

However, the second part of the year won't loosen the pace of key dates marked on the economic calendar, especially because the Government, the Bank of Spain or the European Commission have marked the second half of 2021 as the period which should start the recovery of the Spanish economy, reaching levels prepandemia, although some agencies, such as the OECD, delaying the end of the recovery until the second quarter of 2023.

Despite these ominous forecasts, several macroeconomic and social indicators begin to show that this recovery process already began in April, as reflected in the figures for vaccines, Social Security affiliation, consumption with bank cards, hotel reservations or industrial and service confidence for the fourth month of 2021, which generates even more expectation about the economic recovery and the possibilities of it beginning to materialize.

However, those green shoots do not eliminate all of the uncertainty that weighs on public finances and private after the crisis of the coronavirus, so that a large part of the economic future of the country will be decided between July and December, with the publication of official statistics on employment, tourism, or GDP, with the next season of business results, with the final or possible further extension of the stimulus measures and the expected arrival of european funds Next Generation EU.

These are the 11 dates of the second half of 2021 in the macroeconomic, business and international panorama that will be key to knowing the rate of recovery of the Spanish economy, its largest companies or the main allies of the country, ordered chronologically and accompanied by the reasons that explain their inclusion in this list.

11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery

- July: European aid begins to arrive in Spain

Important: the approval of the funds Next Generation EU starred in the discussions in Brussels since the middle of last year, while the implementation of the plans for the expenditure and control of the distribution of european aid to have cornered a large part of the present community in the first few months of 2021, given that the funds we will receive Spain are crucial for the implementation of the Plan of Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience of the Spanish Economy, that sets out the projects and reforms which will use the funding community.

Key to follow: EC economic vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said last month that the first disbursement of aid to countries would take place in July, according to eldiario.es. Spain, which is the country that most funds will receive with 140,000 million euros, expected to receive 25,000 million euros in 2021, an amount of € 2,000 million lower than expected due to delays in the implementation of the european aid, although the Government announced that endeudaría to anticipate the funds, assigning 2,100 million to the regions to finance measures of dependence, environmental sustainability, and education. Any delay could put the recovery plans at risk, although the economic vice president, Nadia Calviño, has ruled out this possibility.

- July 20th: first half business results season begins

Important for: the main Spanish companies received a mixed reception in the previous results season, during the month of April and May. Thus, financial institutions such as Santander or CaixaBank increased their profits while others such as Sabadell or BBVA returned to positive but without recovering pre-crisis figures, as in the case of Endesa or Iberdrola while other companies such as Euskaltel, Supermercados Dia, NH or Meliá have remained negative.

Key to follow: from July 20 to August 5, the companies, starting with Enagás and concluding with Liberbank, will present their second quarter results, which will serve to know how the first half of 2021 is affecting their accounts. The markets will be pending the quarterly accounts of the bank, with CaixaBank, BBVA or Santander embarked on collective redundancies and after the generalized increase in commissions on their accounts, although the results of Iberdrola, Endesa, Airbus, Repsol or Telefónica, among others, are also awaited with interest, in addition to Inditex, which has a different fiscal year and will present semi-annual results on September 15.

- 9 August: end of the rent moratorium and suspension of evictions to vulnerable groups

Important: in April, the Government announced the extension of 2 measures of the shield social and economic against the coronavirus meant to protect the most vulnerable during the pandemic, the possibility of requesting a moratorium or a partial write of the lease if the landlord is a great fork of housing or a public company or an extraordinary extension of the rental contract, in addition to the suspension of evictions of tenants vulnerable without alternative housing, which expired on may 9, and was extended for 3 more months.

Key to follow: unless the Executive approves a new extension, these 2 measures will decline in the middle of summer and reveal to what extent the economic recovery has reached households with fewer resources. Precisely, in April, the large owners planned to start between 30,000 and 40,000 evictions for non-payment of rent before the Government extended the measures, and assured that there were in Spain at that time between 350,000 and 400,000 families in vulnerable situations.

- Second half of September: GDP data for the second quarter in France and Germany

Important: last week, France announced its entry into a technical recession for the second time in less than 12 months, after adding 2 consecutive quarters of contraction, with a fall in GDP of 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 0.1% in the first 2021. Meanwhile, Germany, which had emerged from recession in the third quarter of last year, returned to negative figures between January and March, with a contraction of 1.8%.

Key to follow: the publication of GDP figures for the second quarter of the year has reverse consequences for the 2 largest economies of the European Union. Thus, Germany could enter technical recession again if its GDP adds its second consecutive quarter down, while France could abandon that situation if its economy manages to grow between April and June, which would help the eurozone emerge from the double recession it entered in early 2021.

- 26 September: federal elections in Germany

Important by: German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the last decade and a half will be replaced in office following the upcoming federal elections in the country, having announced in 2018 that she would not run for her fifth reelection, triggering a leadership crisis in her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), after Merkel's nominated successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer resigned from the candidacy in February 2020 and the election of a new conservative candidate early in the year.2021.

Key to follow: after the internal conflicts in the conservative party, which ended momentarily with the election of Armin Laschet as a candidate, the Green Party managed to surpass the CDU in the polls and its results are expected to allow them to form a coalition with social democrats, liberals or the Left to oust the conservatives from power, although the polls remain even, according to Welt.

11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery

- 30 September: end of the ERTE and the extraordinary benefit for self-employed

Important for: after several negotiations in extremis in which the available deadlines were almost exhausted, the validity of the files of temporary employment regulation (ERTE) and the extraordinary benefits for cessation of activity for self-employed have been extended on 5 occasions thanks to as many agreements of the social dialogue between Government, unions and employers.

Key to follow: beyond that the current postponement of the end of ERTE and benefits for self-employed is expected to expire on September 30, it will be crucial to follow the data of workers affected by these files published by the Ministry of Inclusion and Social Security along with those of affiliation to check if their number continues to decrease, as in recent months, which would discourage social agents to try to negotiate a new extension. Meanwhile, another of the measures to support companies, the bankruptcy moratorium, will expire on December 31 after being extended last March.

- Fourth quarter: CaixaBank and Bankia integrate their platforms and products

Important for: after the announcement of the merger between the two entities in September to create the largest bank in Spain by volume of assets, CaixaBank and Bankia have been finalizing their process announcing an ERE for more than 8,000 employees, which has finally reduced to 7,600, and the closure of hundreds of offices. However, the 2 banks will continue to operate independently until the fourth quarter of this year, although their integration for legal purposes was approved at the beginning of 2021.

Key to follow: the merger process will be completed between October and December, with the integration of its platforms, office networks and its catalog of products and services, which will begin to offer its customers in a unified way in the last months of 2021.

- October: presentation of the draft State Budget 2022

Important for: at the end of 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, the Government managed to prepare and approve its draft budgets for 2021, the first public accounts in the country after 3 years extending those of 2018, after obtaining sufficient parliamentary support for its implementation. By the end of 2021, the Executive will have to repeat the process, on which part of the implementation of the European funds depends, the entry into force of various fiscal measures and other initiatives, such as the pilot project for the 4-day workweek.

Key to follow: the public accounts of 2022 will pose several challenges for the Government, which must regain support in Congress in exchange for negotiating amendments with different parties at a time of the year in which it is expected that the final pact for pension reform will be finalized after reaching a political agreement with employers and unions at the end of May, which will test its negotiating capacity, as well as the tax reform that will be implemented mostly in 2023 or the partial repeal of the labor reform.

11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery

- 28 October: Third quarter Labour Force Survey published

Important for: although Spain continues to be the European leader in total unemployment, youth and women, the labour market figures have been improving slightly at the beginning of the year, managing to reduce the number of unemployed to below 4 million people and again exceeding the 19 million workers affiliated to Social Security.

Key to follow: the Labour Force Survey of the third quarter, which is published in October and which is the most reliable data to know the state of the labor market, will be crucial to corroborate whether employment maintains and reinforces its recovery, especially after the summer season, in which the catering and hotel sectors could encourage hiring after leading the destruction of jobs in 2020 due to the consequences of the pandemic.

- 29 October: Quarterly National Accounts published

Important: while Germany and France expect their GDP numbers for the second quarter, to know whether their economies and elude the downturn, the Spanish economy has focused on the data of the third quarter, which will reveal if the recovery has already begun in Spain, as has been predicted by the Government, the Bank of Spain, Funcas or the European Commission.

Key to follow: the progress of the Quarterly National Accounts for the period between July and September will be published just one day after the EPA and will serve to analyze whether the Spanish economy begins to build the strong growth that the main economic organizations, such as the OECD, predict for the whole of 2021.

11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery

- 3 November: official figures for the end of the tourist season are revealed

Important: other thermometers fundamental to measure the degree of impact of the coronavirus in Spain, are the figures of the tourism sector, which has been forced to suspend nearly all of their activity during the pandemic and hopes that the increase in the rate of vaccination allows you to save the year with a summer season in which the tourists return to fill the hotels, restaurants and resorts in the country, after losing last year more than 43,000 million euros between January and September to stop receiving more than 60 million foreign visitors.

Key to follow: on November 3, the tourist expenditure survey (Egatur) and tourist movements in the border (Frontur) is published, while 9 days later the Passenger Transport Statistics are presented, all corresponding to September, which will offer a complete panorama of how far the summer tourist season has been saved.

# 11 key dates mark Spain 2021 economic recovery #